P14: Near and Future Routes to Cellulosic Bio-Conversion Processes; A Technoeconomic Assessment of the Path Forward

Microbial organisms are capable of producing a wide variety of molecules on cellulosic materials that can be used as potential infrastructure compatible fuels and fuel precursors. These products include higher alcohols, ethers, esters, fatty acids, alkenes and alkanes.  Although some routes are better understood than others, cellulosic fuel production is still in the research to pilot plant stages. The role of microbial bioconversion in such processes is also in the early stages of development and commercialization.  In order to better understand the driving costs of such an industry, we conducted technoeconomic assessments of several cellulosic ethanol plant scenarios.

Technoeconomic analysis (TEA) is an important tool when developing technologies at every stage; from concept to commercialization. Specifically these types of assessments investigate the operating, capital and investment cost as well as cost drivers for the n^th plant. We explore the feasibility of near and long term plant design through TEA models developed with ChemCAD® software. Several scenarios were developed for cellulosic based processes based on well-known bioconversion routes. Past cellulosic ethanol models were used as the basis for near term technology models with more novel hydrocarbon production models presenting long term research goals. The primary objective of our work is to help map technological progress needed to achieve economically favorable production alternative, fuels, fuel precursors and products from cellulosic resources via the bioconversion route.