Sunday, April 29, 2007

30 X 30: A scenario for supplying 30 percent of 2004 motor gasoline with ethanol by 2030

Thomas Foust1, Robert Wooley1, Mike Himmel1, John Jechura1, Kelly Ibsen1, Dave Dayton1, John Ashworth1, John Sheehan1, Robert Wallace1, Robert McCormick1, Debbie Sandor1, Margo Mielendez1, Billie Christen1, Robert D. Perlack2, J. Richard Hess3, Michael Wang4, Seth Synder4, Jonathan R. Mielenz5, Kevin L. Kenney6, Todd Werpy7, and Corey Radtke6. (1) National Bioenergy Center, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, 1617 Cole Blvd, Golden, CO 80401, (2) Envionmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, PO Box 2008, Oak Ridge, TN 37831, (3) Renewable Energy & Power, Idaho National Laboratory - Battelle Energy Alliance, 2525 North Freemont Avenue, IRC - 603/Mail Stop 2203, Idaho Falls, ID 83415, (4) Center for Transportation Research, Argonne National Laboratory, 9700 S. Cass Ave, Argonne, IL 60439, (5) Bioscience Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Bethel Valley Road, Oak Ridge, TN 37931, (6) Idaho National Laboratory, P.O. Box 1625, MS 2210, Idaho Falls, ID 83415-2210, (7) PNNL, Geore Washington Blvd., Richland, WA 56789

 President George W. Bush stated it succinctly in his 2006 State of the Union address: “America is addicted to oil.” In fact, in 2004, the United States used almost 21 million barrels of crude oil each day, and approximately 58% of it was supplied by imports.  The U.S. transportation sector accounts for two-thirds of this petroleum use, with gasoline being the dominate transportation fuel. The U.S. Department of Energy (U.S. DOE) is aggressively pursuing the use of biomass-derived ethanol as a substitute for traditional gasoline. 


The goal to supply 30% of 2004 motor gasoline demand with ethanol by the year 2030, “30 x 30 goal”, was developed after extensive discussion and analysis by key stakeholders. The “30x30” vision roughly translates to a target production of 60 billion gallons/year on a BTU-adjusted basis by 2030. This goal is an aggressive target that will have national impact, but it is also well within the potential for ethanol.


This presentation will describe the research and policy pathways necessary for achieving the 30 x 30 goal with ethanol produced from starch and lignocellulosic feedstocks. The objective is to outline a scenario for achieving the 30 x 30 goal that is realistically achievable with a sustained and integrated government, academia, and private sector effort. The 30 x 30 goal is, in essence, a market goal so hence a market driven approach will be followed towards outlining the scenario for achieving the 30 x 30 goal.


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