S8: A Technoeconomic Assessment of Cellulosic Bio-Conversion Routes; Ethanol and Beyond

Microbial organisms are capable of producing a wide variety of molecules on cellulosic materials that can be used as potential infrastructure compatible fuels and fuel precursors. These products include higher alcohols, ethers, esters, fatty acids, alkenes and alkanes.  Although some routes are better understood than others, cellulosic fuel production is still in the research to pilot plant stages. The role of microbial bioconversion in such plants is also in the early stages of development and commercialization.  In order to better understand the driving costs of such an industry, we conducted technoeconomic assessments of several cellulosic ethanol plant scenarios.

Technoeconomic analysis (TEA) is an important tool when developing technologies at every stage; from concept to commercialization. Specifically these types of assessments investigate the operating, capital and investment cost as well as pertinent cost drivers for the n^th plant. We have developed TEA models using ChemCAD® software based on most current publically available data as a base statement of technology. Here we present several scenarios for the production of cellulosic ethanol based on these data. Our model parameters include feedstock pretreatment, sugar utilization and conversion, as well as organism selection. Further sensitivity analysis was conducted to demonstrate technical and economic impacts on the base process. In order to best represent such impacts subsequent models were developed with process improvements to help map technological progress needed to achieve economically favorable production of microbial fuels via the bioconversion route.