9-07: Implications of the 2012 Drought on Feedstock Availability and the Developing Cellulosic Biofuels Industry

The 2012 drought, along with hurricane Sandy, underscored risk in the agricultural sector to extreme events.  As US energy policy turns to bioenergy in general, and second-generation biofuels in particular, to foster energy security and environmental benefits, consideration should be given to the implications of extreme climatic events and projected climate change for the incipient bioenergy industry.  In particular, cellulosic feedstocks provide the opportunity to deploy perennial and/or woody feedstocks, which offer resilience and operational flexibility in light of extreme climatic events.  Advancements in bioenergy system engineering, particularly in feedstock development and analysis, logistics, extension, and climate modeling, provide opportunities to advance deliberately in the support of a bioenergy industry that contributes to a holistic energy and environmental policy. Support to achieve policy goals from agricultural and forestry production is provided by large-scale assessments at high spatial resolution of potential supplies. However, estimates of potential biomass supply and cost from agriculture rely on average productivity trends that do not capture the inherent spatial and temporal variability caused by extreme weather events. In this presentation we share methodological challenges in addressing this risk through models of feedstock supply and logistics, and potential market interactions of competing uses from agricultural markets when climatic risk is introduced.