Monday, April 30, 2012: 1:30 PM
Waterbury Ballroom, 2nd fl (Sheraton New Orleans)
Policies designed to encourage the production of heat, electricity, and liquid fuels from forest biomass could have dramatic impacts on the global forest resource. Meeting just 10 percent of OECD’s renewable fuel targets with wood-based alternatives would require approximately 148 million m3 of additional biomass annually. At present there is little competition for forest biomass between the energy sector and the traditional forest products sector, but the increased use of wood energy - including increased demand for wood-based biofuels including ethanol - may change the dynamics of forest harvest operations. Significant questions about the impacts of these changes on ecosystem function and carbon cycles remain. Increasing biofuel demand within the OECD could be covered by international trade, because sufficient wood fibre can be supplied globally to satisfy the OECD demand. It should be cautioned, however, that domestic development of wood-based biofuel use around the world will affect the amount of surplus fibre available, and it might be more appropriate for OECD members to develop domestic sources of lignocellulosic biomass for biofuel production. This paper presents three scenarios of potential biofuel development within OECD countries, exploring the impacts of increased domestic production and harvest, increased biomass trade, and a combined future. The potential impacts that these scenarios might have on forest operations is analyzed using this model. Suggestions for policies that might maximize biofuel returns are provided.