Wednesday, April 21, 2010 - 11:00 AM
7-06

Models, science and the precautionary principle:  Land-use change and the sustainability of biomass systems

Keith L. Kline, Virginia H. Dale, and Gbadebo A. Oladosu. Center for Bioenergy Sustainability, Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 1 Bethel Valley Rd, Bldg 1505 MS-6038, Oak Ridge, TN 37830

The future of biomass energy programs increasingly depends on their perceived environmental costs and benefits.  Land-use change (LUC) is a predominant determinant of environmental effects but its estimation relies on modeling.  Data limitations, along with specifications and assumptions that are difficult to validate, make modeling LUC a challenging and uncertain process. This presentation will focus on what can be done in the near term to address uncertainties and develop estimates of the effects on land that are scientific, equitable and facilitate more sustainable biomass supplies.  The presentation will highlight points of agreement and disagreement from the prior presentations and fill any key gaps to capture current debates on biofuels and LUC. Research from Oak Ridge National Laboratory will be shared to illustrate key uncertainties in LUC modeling, recent efforts to establish indicators of sustainability for biofuels, and application of the precautionary principle. Prior speakers will be invited to respond to the following questions to enliven a discussion:  How can biomass policies better address land-use change and avoid or mitigate degradation and loss of productive lands? What are priorities for future research?  This presentation and panel discussion will contribute to building scientific consensus around what we know, don't know, and what we need to find out regarding biomass production and LUC.  [This presentation and key question for panel discussion will be designed to complement the content of the other five presentations in this session.]


Web Page: www.ornl.gov/sci/besd/cbes/

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