ST1-06: Global Feasibility of Large-Scale Biofuel Production

There is currently great confusion and uncertainty regarding the role biofuels should play in the world’s energy future. In response, we have initiated a project to test the hypothesis that the welfare of both humanity and the environment can be better with large-scale production of biofuels than without it.  The project is structured in three stages:
1) Hold public meetings at five locations around the world during the second half of 2009 and first half of 2010, to develop a project plan, form a team, and recruit support for stage 2.
2) Answer the question: Is it possible for biofuels to meet a substantial fraction of future world mobility demand without compromising other vital needs: feeding humanity, providing fiber, maintaining and where possible improving soil fertility, air and water quality, biodiversity and wildlife habitat, and achieving large greenhouse gas emission reductions that are not substantially negated by land use changes.
3) Given an affirmative answer to this question, broaden the analysis and team as necessary to address desirable transition paths and policies, ethical and equity issues, impacts of climate change, and local-scale analysis including rural economic development.
Our proposed approach is distinct from prior studies of biomass resource availability and is likely necessary if a low-carbon transportation future is to be realized.  Project results will provide critical guidance, both toward the overall feasibility of a biofuel-intensive future, and toward defining the policy and land use trajectories that foster this outcome.