Monday, May 4, 2009
5-60
Cost Driver Influences on a Biomass to Ethanol Process Model
Brandon Emme, Johan Mogensen, Michael Hershkowitz, and Prashant Iyer. Novozymes North America, Inc., 77 Perry Chapel Church Road, Franklinton, NC 27525
In 2002, NREL published a report with data on a comprehensive theoretical study into a biomass to ethanol process using dilute acid pretreatment and enzymes for corn stover hydrolysis (NREL/TP-510-32438). This study suggested such a process could be economically viable given cost optimizations in several key areas of the process, and has become a baseline for much work in academia, industry and technology development.
Research and Development organizations have focused efforts within portions of the process where they own technical expertise. However, having met particular development targets, it can be difficult to assimilate these changes into the holistic cost picture in “today’s dollars” to evaluate true economic viability. A model, based upon the NREL 2002 study, is suggested which incorporates process flow correlations using AspenPlus as well as statistical techniques to overcome assumption uncertainties in a plug-in and out format. A sensitivity analysis is presented which illustrates major cost drivers in the overall production cost based upon this model.
Research and Development organizations have focused efforts within portions of the process where they own technical expertise. However, having met particular development targets, it can be difficult to assimilate these changes into the holistic cost picture in “today’s dollars” to evaluate true economic viability. A model, based upon the NREL 2002 study, is suggested which incorporates process flow correlations using AspenPlus as well as statistical techniques to overcome assumption uncertainties in a plug-in and out format. A sensitivity analysis is presented which illustrates major cost drivers in the overall production cost based upon this model.